April 23, 2011
What the data predicts for the election in Kamloops
Chartle is a cool visualization tool I couldn’t resist.
I fed in data for the past three elections when the Conservative party has been led by Stephen Harper — 2004, 2006 and 2008. The chart below displays percentage support in Kamloops Thompson Cariboo for the four parties that ran in all three elections:
As you can see, the percentage of votes for the Conservatives, the NDP and the Greens has been building over the past three elections, while support for the Liberals has collapsed.
If these trends continue, I predict two significant outcomes. First, the NDP will continue to make gains at the expense of the Liberals, but not enough to beat the Conservatives. Second, the Greens will overtake the Liberals and establish themselves as the third party in this riding.
These forecasts are backed by recent national polls showing a surge for the NDP, more or less steady support for the Conservatives and a slump for the Liberals.