newsonaut
Turning inner space into outer space
Sunday, November 8, 2020
Five ways the U.S. presidential election affects a small city in Canada
It's tempting to think the outcome of a U.S. presidential doesn't have much effect on the small city in Canada where I live.
But that's not true. I can think of five ways Kamloops will be affected — two good, two bad, and one hard to define.
The good
Climate change and wildfires
President-elect Joe Biden has promised to get the United States back in the Paris Agreement, and is in favour of several initiatives to address the climate crisis.
Kamloops has seen disastrous wildfire summers in recent years. These are costly to fight. The smoke creates health hazards. People have lost their homes and their lives. It may be early to say conclusively that climate change is to blame, but scientists says it is a likely culprit.
Tourism and COVID-19
Biden has promised to make dealing with the COVID-19 his top priority. He will listen to the advice of scientists and public health experts.
The tourism industry in Kamloops has been hurt by the lack of visitors from the United States. The sooner we can safely re-open the border, the better it will be for tourism.
The bad
Softwood lumber agreement
Canada and the U.S. have a softwood lumber agreement that regulates how much Canadian lumber can be sold in U.S. markets. This agreement is regularly challenged by the U.S., sometimes to the detriment of Canadian producers.
Washington and Oregon, which are major lumber producers for the U.S., are solidly Democratic and will likely have a more sympathetic ear with a Democratic president in the White House.
The forest industry remains important in the Kamloops region, with many jobs depending on lumber mills. They could find themselves under more pressure with more challenges to the agreement.
Oil and gas workers
Biden is opposed the Keystone pipeline, which Canada considers crucial to the viability of the oil and gas industry. In fact, the federal government has signalled that this will be its top priority in relations with the Biden government.
Many Kamloops residents depend for their livelihood on oil and gas jobs in northern Alberta, where they commute. The industry is going through a downturn that could be made worse if the pipeline is stalled. More jobs will be lost.
The undefinable
The president of the United States, whoever that might be, has an outsized influence on the world. It's like we're passengers on a bus, and we depend on the driver to be cautious and obey the rules of the road.
It's one thing for the driver to take us somewhere we didn't want to go — that's expected in politics. But it's another for the driver to be rude and rash. It turns us into nervous wrecks.
There's a chance the current driver could crash the bus before he leaves, but at least we have the relief of knowing the next driver will stop at red lights. We will at long last be able to let go of the death grips we have on the arm rests.
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Wednesday, November 9, 2011
Reading between the lines, Milobar supported the police raid
When Mayor Peter Milobar was asked at the candidates forum Tuesday night about his stance on the police raid of the cannabis club on Tranquille, he gave an entirely truthful answer — up to a point.
He said it was a federal responsibility and that the City had no say in the police actions. From this I take it that he was politely saying that he supported the raid. Because if he had opposed it, there are a couple of things he could easily have said.
1. City council members regularly meet with Kamloops RCMP officials to discuss issues of public safety. I will attend the next meeting and try to use my influence as mayor to convince them to leave the cannabis club alone.
2. The City occasionally lobbies the federal government through our member of Parliament. For example, I am meeting with federal Environment Minister Peter Kent to ask for a federal review of the proposed Ajax mine — thanks to help from Kamloops MP Cathy McLeod. I will ask our MP to facilitate the City’s participation in a federal review currently underway that is looking at changing medical marijuna laws. We would welcome the chance to voice our support for a compassion club in Kamloops.
Milobar said neither of these things, even though I’m certain that he must — as a longtime politician — be aware of these options. In some cases, what people don’t say speaks louder than what they do say.
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Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Even unscientific polls can influence an election
The Daily News poll on the race for mayor showed a sudden surge of voting Tuesday afternoon, leading incumbent Peter Milobar to ask us, via Twitter, whether our website is secure. No doubt he was a little concerned that the surge put his main rival, Dieter Dudy, withing striking distance.
I can’t answer the question of whether someone cheated, but this is not the first time we’ve experienced a voting surge. When we asked what people thought about evolution, the answers were at first fairly evenly distributed.
Then noted science blogger PZ Myers got wind of it, and suggested to his readers that they might want to participate. Suddenly, there was overwhelming support for the proposition that evolution is scientific fact.
Simon Owens has an in-depth look at the practice of poll crashing, and got comments from Myers and others. Myers says he does it with a clear conscience because his intention is to show the absurdity of unscientific polls.
I’m not sure why he finds this necessary. My impression is that most people see these polls as little more than a fun way to have their say. Still, the fact that Milobar tweeted his concern, and the fact that someone saw fit to artificially boost Dudy’s numbers, shows that a lot of people do take these polls seriously.
As Milobar went on to say, the only poll that really counts is the one on election day. But in the meantime, even unscientific online polls may have an effect on how people ultimately cast their ballot.
For example, Brian Alexander and Gordon Chow are currently mired in last place with a little over two per cent each. Anyone seeing this will likely conclude that a vote would be wasted on either of them.
On the other hand, with Dudy about 11 points behind Milobar — making it look like he has a chance — a lot of people might see him as a viable alternative. With numbers like this, he could pick up some votes that he wouldn’t have otherwise.
In the end, though, Milobar needn’t worry. Whatever you think of his record, he at least has one. I predict Kamloops voters will stick with the devil they know.
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Sunday, October 16, 2011
Milobar vs. the rest
When the flood of mayoral candidates came in Friday afternoon, I made a joke: When Dieter Dudy declared, incumbent Peter Milobar got a bunch of others to throw in their hats as well. His strategy, I opined, was to dilute the opposition vote and ensure that he won a second term.
I don’t believe that, of course. But the result is the same. With one articulate opponent, Milobar would might have faced a serious challenge. But with three more candidates — all of whom are fringe at best — any protest vote will be scattered.
So, thanks to Brian Alexander, Gordon Chow and Frank Stewart for jumping in and making sure there is a good debate on the issues. But in the end, you’ve ensured the status quo.
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Wednesday, October 5, 2011
City councillors desperately need a reality check
The current poll up at The Daily News shows once again just how out of touch city councillors are with the residents of Kamloops.
We already knew this from the Lorne Street parkade fiasco. They ignored a survey indicating overwhelming opposition to it, and now it will most likely go down to defeat in a counter petition.
Taxpayers will be left holding the bag either way. More than $200,000 has already been spent on various studies, so that money will be gone even if the project is simply cancelled.
But if they push ahead with a referendum, which would be the only way to get the parkade approved, that would cost another $100,000. And if they’re going to do that, why not use the money to build a parkade elsewhere?
What a mess.
It’s no wonder most people like the idea of a municipal auditor general to keep an eye on spending by local governments. In The Daily News poll, more than 50 per cent say it’s about time.
Meanwhile, out-of-touch councillors at the recent Union of B.C. Municipalities conference offered lame opposition to the proposal for a municipal auditor. Everything is fine the way it is, they insisted.
Everything is not fine, and Kamloops is proof.
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Tuesday, August 30, 2011
We are not amused
When you think about it, we already have lots of royalty in Canada: the Royal Canadian Mint, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, the Royal Bank of Canada, the Royal B.C. Museum.
So on the face of it, renaming two branches of the military to the Royal Canadian Air Force and Royal Canadian Navy doesn’t seem all that significant.
But we have a feeling there is more to this announcement from the Conservative government than meets the eye.
When the Tories were elected with a majority government, there was much speculation among pundits that Canadians are becoming more small-c conservative in their outlook.
It wouldn’t be surprising. After all, as Winston Churchill once said: “If you’re not a liberal at 20 you have no heart, if you’re not a conservative at 40 you have no brain.” And as with much of he western world, an increasing bulge in Canada’s population is indeed over 40.
The way we see it, Stephen Harper and friends are hoping to nurture the trend. They would like to see the Conservatives take over the mantle of natural-ruling party.
This would go a long way to explaining the nod to our historic ties to Britain’s royal family in the military, taking us back to the pre-Trudeau era. After all, it will be an expensive exercise. Any company that has contemplated something even as seemingly minor as changing its logo knows it’s getting into something big.
For example, when Pepsi changed its logo in 2008, experts estimated the design itself cost $1 million – but that was just the beginning. The real cost was in removing the old logo everywhere it appears and putting up the new one.
For Pepsi, that’s a whole lot of trucks, vending machines, stadium signage, point-of-sale material and more. Experts noted the final tally could reach hundreds of millions of dollars.
For the Canadian military, it could be even more costly when you consider all the vehicles, ships and aircraft, plus signage at bases, recruitment posters and so on.
Even the Royal Canadian Legion considers it a waste of money. They say the cash would be better spent looking after the needs of veterans. We have to agree on that point.
The Conservative government recently told South Korea that Canada would not be taking part in Expo 2012. The reason, according to a statement issued by Heritage Minister James Moore’s office: “Canadians elected us on our promise to return to balanced budgets. This requires difficult decisions.”
In the end, it seems some decisions are easier than others when they are based primarily on the interests of the party in power.
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Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Welcome to the good guys, Nycole and Denis
The latest polls show that 46 per cent of respondents don’t consider it a major issue that NDP interim leader Nycole Turmel was once a member of the Bloc Québécois. Further, 41 per cent said they weren’t even aware of the fact.
Talk about a tempest in a teapot.
Adding to the tawdry nature of the story is the spin the politicians have been putting on it. According to the Tories, anyone who has been a member of the Bloc is forever tainted and can never be trusted to hold a position of authority in a federalist party.
“I think it’s very disappointing,” Prime Minister Stephen Harper said. “I don’t know that I have a lot to say but I do think Canadians will find this disappointing. I think Canadians expect that any political party that wants to govern the country be unequivocally committed to this country. I think that’s the minimum Canadians expect.”
However, when one of their own — cabinet minister Denis Lebel — was exposed as a former Bloc member, it was a different story. Apparently he would have to take over from Stephen Harper as leader before it became a problem.
And so the political ping pong game went on.
About the only person to make a legitimate point was former Quebec Premier Bernard Landry, who noted that flitting between political parties shows a lack of conviction and sets a bad example for young people thinking of getting into politics.
“It’s rare that I agree with English Canada, but I think they’ve got a point here. There is a serious civic problem here. Participation in politics is not a joke, it’s not a gag. There are (party) activists who devote a large chunk of their lives as citizens in defense of their convictions.”
Indeed, many politicians already have reputations for being opportunists, and that may be why the Turmel affair has failed to capture the public’s imagination. It’s become commonplace.
Still, there is an upside to all this. The fact that Turmel and Lebel have switched sides — from separatist to federalist — is a bit of good news for Canadian unity. Instead of vilifying them, we should be praising them for seeing the light.
If Turmel and Lebel turn out to have successful careers as federal politicians, it will encourage other Quebecers to follow the same path. And the fact that it isn’t the path that Landry would like them to choose makes it all the better.
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Wednesday, May 25, 2011
HST changes may be too little too late
The Daily News poll on the HST has been up for just a short while, but already I’m detecting a trend — and it doesn’t look good for the B.C. Liberals.
They’ve promised to lower the HST to 10 per cent from 12 per cent over the next three years. Another sweetener is payments of $175 to seniors and families with children.
Anger over the HST, and how it was introduced, has subsided in the past few months, and some people are seeing that it hasn’t affected their lives as drastically has they had feared. But there is still a hard core of opposition — much of it based on principle — that won’t be swayed. And it looks like that hard core will be enough to sink the tax.
At this point, The Daily News poll show 40 per cent responding with “the HST is just plain wrong” and another 20 per cent agreeing that it “sounds like bribery.” That’s a total of 60 per cent who remain opposed to the HST or who are at least cynical about any attempts to make it more palatable.
That’s the bad news. The glimmer of good news is that about 35 per cent say that a rate of 10 per cent seems reasonable and the rest appear open to persuasion. So there is some hope for the B.C. Liberals.
My hunch is that while some minds can be changed, it won’t be quite enough.
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Tuesday, May 24, 2011
Future looks bleak for census
If our Daily News poll on the census is anything to go by, Kamloops residents haven’t exactly given the survey a wholehearted embrace.
The poll shows 30 per cent either “didn’t bother” or were unaware that a census was taking place. That leaves a participation rate of about 70 per cent.
I haven’t been able to find numbers for participation rates in previous censuses in Canada, but a website for the U.S. census suggests that 70 per cent is not bad. Here’s what they had to say about 74 per cent: “America participated! 74 percent of households in the United States filled out and mailed back their 2010 Census questionnaire, a significant achievement in a time of declining survey participation worldwide.”
Still, the prospect of a declining participation rate is not something to be taken lightly, and the Conservative government has to shoulder some responsibility. First, they set a bad example with the long-form census by making it no longer mandatory. I’m sure many Canadians figure Ottawa is no longer serious about the census and they can just skip it. Second, funding for a campaign to encourage people to fill out the census was, according to this Canadian Press article, cut from $30 million to $15 million.
The only people who seem to be taking the census seriously are special interest groups who are encouraging members to fill in the forms to ensure they continue to receive government funding. This, coupled with low participation, will wind up skewing the results and force analysts to interpret the numbers with a healthy dose of skepticism.
It really is sad with politics trumps common sense.
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Monday, May 16, 2011
Where do our taxes go? The bubbles tell all
The City of Kamloops has published its draft financial plan for 2011-2015. You can check out the PDFs, but I figured it would be cool to create a bubble visualization using the tools at Many Eyes. Below you can see how the various spending categories compare. Be sure to click for an interactive version, which allows you to click on the disks and get more information.
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