May 3, 2011
In the end, my prediction for yesterday’s vote in Kamloops Thompson Cariboo — based on the trend of the past three elections — was fairly close.
I figured both the Conservatives and the NDP would build, about equally, on past support. As it turns out, they did both build — although the Conservatives were much more successful than the NDP.
I also predicted support for the Liberals would continue to fall and that the Greens would overtake them. The Liberals did indeed drop, but so did the Greens. Still, they managed to finish ahead of the Liberals by .1 per cent.
What does this mean for the next election? Unless there is some major scandal for the Conservatives, or the NDP performs exceptionally well as the Official Opposition, the Tories have a lock on this riding.