April 29, 2011
A blog called ThreeHundredEight.com has election outcome projections not only for Canada as a whole, but for every riding in the country — including Kamloops Thompson Cariboo. I’m not sure where they get their data from, because I’m not aware of any polling done here.
In any case, they predict the Conservatives will take Kamloops once again, with 44 per cent of the vote. That would be down slightly from 2008 when the Tories received 46.15 per cent. The NDP is projected to take 37.6 per cent — up a bit from 35.88 in 2008.
This jives with my own prediction based on trends in the last three elections. Support for the NDP is on the comeback in Kamloops, but not enough to win.
ThreeHundredEight.com goes on to predict a modest increase in support for the Liberals to 10.5 per cent from 9.84 per cent. They say the Greens will drop to seven per cent from 8.11 per cent. I’m more inclined to forecast that the Greens will continue to build on their support and surpass the Liberals. But it could be that the drop in support for the Conservatives reflects a shift to the Grits.
Meanwhile, the Campaign Trends — based on what people are searching for on Google — continues to show a huge spike in interest in NDP Leader Jack Layton.
ThreeHundredEight.com projects that the NDP will pick up a large number of new seats at the expense of the Liberals and Bloc Québécois, but not enough to pass the Liberals. And there won’t be enough seats between the NDP and the Liberals to form a coalition that can defeat the Tories.
Update: Saturday’s figures for Kamloops Thompson Cariboo show the Tories down from 44 per cent to 43.8 per cent and the NDP up from 37.6 per cent to 38.7. Interesting. The NDP appears to have momentum, but it doesn’t appear to be quite enough to win.